![]() However, this requires greater collaboration in international trade. That way, disruptions in some exporting regions can be compensated for by exports from another. Global food systems and competitive international trade structures, in particular, are key to dealing with crises and mitigating the risks of food shortages. It is difficult to predict what will happen beyond this marketing year, as this will be determined by the development of the current conflict in addition to agricultural fundamentals in key supply and demand regions. However, global demand for wheat is expected to be met in the current marketing year since countries such as Australia, Brazil and the USA will increase exports to fill the gap left by Russia and Ukraine. Disruptions to exports from the Black Sea region and high prices are further destabilising food security in these regions. This has above all affected import-dependent countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and sub-Saharan Africa, which rely heavily on Russian and Ukrainian wheat. Now, the invasion of Russian forces in Ukraine has sent prices soaring even higher. ![]() Since late 2021, prices for commodities such as grains and vegetable oils have reached record highs, surpassing even the levels of the global food price crises of more than a decade ago. ![]() The war in Ukraine has aggravated existing tensions on the agricultural commodities market.
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